On immunity.

On immunity.

Our efforts to “flatten the curve” of the Covid-19 epidemic are onerous. 

Children aren’t allowed to go to school.  We’re forcing small retailers out of business.  People aren’t hugging when they greet.

Some people think these sacrifices are worthwhile, though, if they reduce the number of people who die from Covid-19.

Unfortunately, the effort to “flatten the curve” can cause more people to die of Covid-19 — including more of our elders — than if we’d carried on with life as usual.

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Antibodies are like the memory of your immune system.  After you’ve been infected with a particular virus, your body can destroy further copies of that virus.

This memory doesn’t last forever.  Your body will “forget” how to fight off the coronavirus that causes the common cold within a year.

If we carried on with life as usual, the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 would probably make its rounds through the population of the United States within a few months.  After that, there would be no new people to infect, and so the virus would disappear.

If, however, we practice social distancing and slow the rate of transmission – the same number of infections spaced over eighteen months instead of eighteen weeks – your immune system has a chance “forget” how to fight off the virus while this virus is still circulating in the population.  By slowing the rate of transmission, you give yourself the opportunity to contract the infection twice

If we slow the rate of transmission enough, this coronavirus will survive indefinitely.  Then people will continue to die of Covid-19 forever.

Even if you are currently at risk — elderly or immunocompromised — you should still fear this possibility. Will you be less at risk when this virus hits your hometown again in another year?

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When a virus infects a cell, it uses that cell’s replicative machinery to make more copies of itself.  A virus can’t reproduce on its own – it can only co-opt its host’s cells into making more copies for it.

Each time the host makes a new copy, it must replicate the entire genome of the virus.  Our cells are pretty good at copying genomes – every time the cells of our own bodies divide, they produce a new copy of our 3-billion-base-pair genome, and the copies usually have only a handful of mistakes.

Of course, a handful of mistakes compounded over time can be deadly.  That’s what cancer is – your cells didn’t copy your DNA perfectly, and so you wound up with slightly mutated DNA, and this mutated DNA instructs cells to form a tumor that kills you.

The same accumulation of errors can change a virus.  In the 1918 influenza epidemic, huge numbers of people died because the virus mutated to become more deadly.

The longer we allow the Covid-19 outbreak to go on – the more we strive to “flatten the curve” – the more mutations will accrue in its genome. 

Consider a city in which ten people live, one of whom has the virus.  If they throw a party, the other nine will be infected all at once – they will all come down with the Nth generation of the virus, whatever the current sick person is shedding.  If, however, they practice social distancing and get sick one at a time, each passing the infection to the next, the last person in the chain will be infected with viral generation N+9.  It could be very different, and more dangerous, than the initial virus.

Mutation doesn’t always make a virus more dangerous.  It’s entirely random.  It was bad luck that a mutation in 1918 made that strain of influenza more deadly.

But the risk is real.  It’s a risk we aggravate if we “flatten the curve.”  Right now, very few young healthy people will be hurt by Covid-19, but no one can know what monstrosity we’ll produce if we allow this virus to cycle through enough generations.

Inconveniently for us, Covid-19 is caused by an RNA virus.  Our cellular machinary is pretty good at making copies of DNA – every round of cell division makes a few mistakes, but not so many.  Our cellular machinary is worse at making accurate copies of RNA.  A virus with an RNA genome will mutate faster.

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People are worried that, without drastic efforts to slow the rate of transmission of Covid-19, the influx of new cases would overwhelm our hospitals.  We might run out of ventilators and be forced to triage, providing heroic medical interventions only to those people most likely to survive.  Some number of elderly patients with a low chance of survival would not receive care.

Is this bad?

Most medical doctors have signed “do not resuscitate” orders.  I have, too.  Most medical doctors, who have seen over and over again what it’s like when elderly patients with a low chance of survival receive heroic medical interventions, don’t want it for themselves.  They would rather die in peace.

The New York Times – which, alongside the New York Review of Books, is my favorite news outlet, even though it’s been full of fear-mongering about Covid-19 – printed a quote from Giacomo Grasselli, who coordinates intensive care units throughout Lombardy, Italy.  Grasselli is working at the front-lines of the Italian Covid-19 outbreak.

“My father is 84 and I love him very much,” but it would be irresponsible, he said, to make him go through the invasive procedures of an I.C.U.

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In the United States, we spent over three trillion dollars on medical care in 2016.  A huge fraction of this spending is used for minuscule extensions of life.  A third of all Americans have surgery during their last month of life.  We often spend more on interventions that extend the life of wealthy patients by a month than we do on all the pre-natal, preventative, and acute care that other people receive, ever.

What’s been missing, in the United States, is a conversation about what constitutes a good life.  What needs to happen for people to be able to face death with the thought that their lives have been enough? 

Covid-19 has killed thousands of people who were privileged to live to extremely old age.  In the United States, the worst outbreak will be in New York City – a city that is so expensive to live in that it harbors huge concentrations of wealthy elderly people.

In the United States, the life expectancy is 78 years.  Of course, there are major inequalities.  If you are wealthy, you might live longer than that.  If you are poor, you’ll probably die younger.  My spouse’s parents both died in their 60s.

Covid-19 has a high mortality rate for people who have already exceeded this life expectancy.  For people under retirement age, Covid-19 is less dangerous than seasonal flu.

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In the United States, life expectancy has been falling.  This decline is primarily due to an epidemic of “deaths of despair”: Drug addiction.  Suicide. 

In the United States, around 40,000 to 50,000 people die of suicide each year.  Around 60,000 people die of drug overdose.  Around 70,000 people die from alcohol abuse.

Each year, the epidemic of “deaths of despair” kill somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 people.

Our efforts to “flatten the curve” will probably increase the number of people who die from deaths of despair.

Small towns across the United states have been gutted by the internet.  People used to visit local retailers, which could employ local salespeople.  Then we switched to buying things on Amazon, giving Jeff Bezos our money instead.

Now, local retailers are being forced to close due to fears about Covid-19.  People have to buy things online.  But local retailers still have expenses.  They still have to pay rent.  The owners still have to eat.  Many small retailers will run out of money and never open again after the Covid-19 epidemic is over.

As if our small towns needed yet more punishment.

In general, people will experience more financial woes because of our response to Covid-19.  Businesses are closed.  Work has slowed.  The stock market has tanked. 

And financial instability increases the risk of deaths of despair.  That’s a major reason why there’s been such a dramatic rise in deaths of despair among young people.

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Thankfully, our efforts to “flatten the curve” aren’t guaranteed to make this coronavirus mutate.  Our efforts aren’t guaranteed to make this virus a permanent parasite on the human race. 

We might cause these calamities, but we don’t know for sure.

Indeed, we know very little about this illness.  We do know that tens of thousands of elderly people have died.  But we don’t know whether ten thousand died out of a hundred thousand who were infected, or a million, or tens of millions.

Our perception of the disease would be very different in each of those scenarios.  But we do not, and can not, know.  We have no retrospective testing, and we have never tested a random sample of the population to investigate viral prevalence.

The best we can do is estimate from small data sets, the way Stanford epidemiologist John Ioannidis has done.  Ioannidis is very clear about his methodology, so if you happen to disagree with any of his assumptions, you can re-work the math yourself.

He concludes that our response is a horrific over-reaction.

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The people recommending these policies – social distancing, school closure, stay-at-home orders, or total lockdown – aren’t doing so out of malice.  They’re making the decisions they feel to be best.  But no policy is neutral, obviously. 

These policies prioritize the short-term needs of wealthy people who have exceeded their expected lifespans, at the expense of everyone under retirement age.  In particular, these policies do not value the needs of children.

Many of our country’s policies prioritize the desires of wealthy older people over the needs of children, though  “Flatten the curve” is just another example.

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In many places, we are probably attempting to “flatten the curve” after the epidemic has already run its course.

More likely than not, I already had Covid-19.  In early January, a co-worker of my children’s best friends’ parent left China, stayed briefly with her daughter in Seattle, then returned to Bloomington. 

A few days later, she came down with a high fever and a bad cough.  She went in for a flu test, but tested negative.  The doctors sent her home.

A week later, my children’s best friends’ parent – the sick woman’s co-worker – came down with a high fever and a bad cough.  His children were sick enough that they stayed home from school for a day.  He was sick enough that he missed a week of work.

A week later, on February 10th, my children and I got sick.  We had a high fever and a bad cough.  The kids felt better the next day.  I felt wretched for an entire week.  I am an endurance runner with strong lungs – still, I needed puffs of my spouse’s Albuterol inhaler four times a day.  I took naproxen but still had a hallucinatory fever.  I wouldn’t wish that illness on anyone.  For the next two weeks, I was vigilant about washing my hands and tried to minimize my contact with other people.

Over the next month, many other people in town came down with a cough and fever.  It would typically last a week, then they’d feel better.

But it was pretty scary for some people. I’d felt wrecked. Another friend of mine — 55 years old, cigarette smoker, & former methamphetamine addict — felt like he could barely breathe. The doctor said that if his oxygen flow had been any lower, she would’ve kept him at the hospital.

He wasn’t tested for Covid-19. There were still no tests available. And after a horrible week, he felt better.

And then, on March 12thafter the epidemic had probably run its course in our town – our schools closed.  The university students left for spring break, and the remaining populace of our small town began to practice social distancing.

And yet, in mid-March, the first case of Covid-19 was diagnosed here.  This patient could not trace the social connections that would have led back to a known Covid-19 outbreak.  As should be expected by that late stage of an epidemic.

All around the country, reported Covid-19 cases are exponentially rising.  But that doesn’t mean that Covid-19 infections are exponentially rising.  It only means that access to Covid-19 testing has risen.

When the epidemic likely spread through my town, it went undetected – no Covid-19 tests were available in the United States, and there’s no way to test whether someone was infected in the past.  The reported numbers of Covid-19 cases are guaranteed to be lower than the true number of people infected, because you can only be counted as a Covid-19 if you feel sick enough to visit a doctor, and then somehow manage to get access to the test.

The test will only register positive during the acute phase of the illness.  There is no possible way to test whether someone who isn’t currently shedding virus has been infected.

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A useful way to consider this epidemic is to imagine what would happen if the Covid-19 PCR test wasn’t invented. 

People would still get Covid-19.  We would take no extraordinary protective measures, because we wouldn’t realize what they were sick with.

This is like what happened at the beginning of the HIV crisis in the United States.  Medical doctors called the disease GRD, or “gay-related disease,” and it was terrifying.  Healthy young people suddenly wasted away.

If we lacked a PCR test to accurately diagnose Covid-19, though, we wouldn’t call it “age-related disease.”  We would call it “seasonal flu.”  This year, about 30,000 people will die of seasonal flu, including many healthy young people.  This year, my nephew almost died of the flu.  He couldn’t breathe.  He needed invasive ventilation to survive.

If we did nothing to staunch the Covid-19 outbreak, somewhere between 15,000 and 30,000 people probably would die from it.  Combined with the 30,000 deaths actually caused by influenza, we would think that between 45,000 and 60,000 people had died from seasonal flu.  No more than a dozen or so of the additional deaths would have been healthy young people.

That’s many more deaths!  But nothing exceptional.  In 2017, 60,000 people died of seasonal flu.

In 2017, we still let children go to school.  I’m not sure I read any news articles about seasonal flu in 2017.  And in the following years – after huge numbers of people died! –  about half our population didn’t bother to get a flu vaccine.

Influenza is a more dangerous illness, and it’s preventable.  But our country’s vaccination rate is too low to confer herd immunity.  Even if you are young and healthy, a bad case of the flu can kill you.  Even if you are young and healthy, your vaccination protects others.

Social distancing would protect people from the flu, also.  Every flu season, we could stay six feet away from each other for a few weeks, and then we’d vanquish the flu.  But social distancing comes at a tremendous cost, as we’re now learning.

Or we could get the vaccine.  But we, as a people, don’t.

On panic.

On panic.

Note: As we’ve gathered more data, it’s become clear that, on a population level, Covid-19 causes approximately five-fold more deaths than seasonal influenza. Because it is more infectious, an unaddressed outbreak of Covid-19 in the United States probably would have caused between 750,000 and 1,000,000 deaths. My original estimates were incorrect.

The front cover of The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy is emblazoned with the words “DON’T PANIC.”  The authors knew that you might forget some of their advice during an emergency.  If you can keep those two words in mind, though, you’ll often be all right.

Don’t panic.

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Right now, the world is experiencing a viral pandemic.  Last year alone, 770,00 people – almost a million! – died from this viral infection.  There are treatments, but no cure.  And the known treatments are out of reach for many people who contract the disease.

In a recent outbreak in my home state of Indiana, an additional 235 people were infected with this fatal virus.

HIV is really, really scary.

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Right now, the world is also experiencing an outbreak of oppressive government control.  In many European countries, the citizens are on lockdown.  In France, people must apply for authorization in order to visit the grocery store.

In the United States, “non-essential” businesses have been forced to close.   Children have lost access to their schools.  University students were locked out of their dormitories.  People are suffering psychological damage from the effects of social isolation and fear.

That sounds scary, too.

But also strange.  Because schools didn’t close in response to the HIV pandemic, or the outbreak of gun violence, or lead-tainted drinking water.  Schools closed in order to combat the spread of a new zoogenic coronavirus – a virus that appears to be less dangerous than seasonal influenza.

And yet, even though data suggests that Covid-19 is less dangerous than seasonal influenza, lives are being up-ended. 

The New York Times has been full of sensational scaremongering.  But the subtitle for today’s article about Seattle tells the story of the real calamity:

In a state that has seen more deaths from the coronavirus than any other, the stress has started to multiply.  Jobs lost.  Kids underfoot.  Parents at risk.  “It’s exhausting,” one woman said.

Jobs lost, children barred from continuing their education – that’s a problem!

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Schools were not closed in response to the seasonal influenza.  Why would they be?  That happens every single year – the seasonal flu isn’t news.  Although the deaths are sometimes noticed.  In early January, The Seattle Times reported that:

Of the people who have died so far this season, one was younger than 5 years old and another was between the ages of 5 and 17, state health officials report.  Two adults between the ages of 30 and 49 have died, and the remaining 17 were people 50 or older.

The seasonal flu is scary!  It can kill you even if you are young and healthy.  Already, this year’s seasonal influenza has killed something like 30,000 people in the United States alone. 

Compared to influenza, Covid-19 is less likely to kill you if you are young and healthy.  From Nell Greenfieldboyce’s article, “Who Faces the Greatest Risk of Severe Illness from Coronavirus?

The person who died in Placer County, California was described by officials as “an elderly adult with underlying health conditions.”  Most of the people who died in Washington were residents of Life Care Center, a nursing facility.  All but three of the victims in Washington were over age 70.

The younger people who died include one man in his 40s and two men in their 50s.  Officials said these individuals had underlying medical problems.

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Worldwide, only one (1) person younger than 21 has died of Covid-19.  By way of comparison, this year’s not-particularly-deadly seasonal flu, as of March 14, had already killed 6 children in Washington State alone.  Washington state, the epicenter of the United States’ Covid-19 outbreak.

ABC News reported that:

The data in the U.S. is similar to Italy, which has been particularly hard-hit by coronavirus […] found the average age among the 105 patients who died from the virus as of March 4 was 81 years old.

And yet, even though the data suggest that Covid-19 is not exceptionally dangerous – less dangerous than seasonal flu for people under 50 – many news organizations have published sensational numbers about the high chance of death.  Even the World Health Organization claimed that Covid-19 had a 3.4% fatality rate.

These numbers are obviously false.  This is the percentage fatality rate of people who tested positive for Covid-19 … but the only way to receive a test was to have a high fever, cough, and difficulty breathing, and feel sick enough that it seemed prudent to go to a hospital to be tested.

Many other people also had the virus.  Those people didn’t get very sick, though, so they didn’t go to the hospital to be tested.

When Stanford epidemiologist John Ioannidis analyzed the available data in detail, he estimated that the actual fatality rate might be as low as 0.05%, and that the upper bound was probably 1%.  Ioannidis writes:

That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done.  A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza.  If that is the the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational.  It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat.  Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps of a cliff and dies.

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Even if Covid-19 is as dangerous as the upper bound suggests, however, the advice to “flatten the curve” seems misguided.  In the United States, people repeated the phrase “it would be better to have the same number of infections spread out over 18 months instead of 18 weeks,” and proposed the (initial) cure of a 3-week school closure.

A 3-week closure would not magically cause infections to be spaced over 18 months.  It would simply delay the exponential growth phase of the epidemic by 3-weeks.  To actually space infections over 18 months, you would need at least a year of social isolation.

Spacing infections over 18 months also makes them more dangerous.  In the 1918 flu epidemic, the virus mutated midway through the season and became much more lethal.  Right now, Covid-19 poses very low risk to people who are under 50 years old and in good health.  But there’s a chance that it could mutate and become more dangerous.

The probability of mutation increases with the number of viral generations.  Let’s say we start with a sick person and nine people who have not yet been exposed.  If these people all go to a party together and get infected, the nine new cases will all wind up with the same viral generation.  Then they’ll clear it, and there’ll be nobody new to infect.

If they instead practice “social isolation,” then the virus will hop from one person to the next.  The tenth person receives a virus that has undergone many additional replications, potentially mutating to become more dangerous.

Our society would be better off if every young healthy person were exposed as quickly as possible – this would get the epidemic over with as quickly as possible, and reduce the pool of potential carriers.

It’s reasonable for people who feel like they are at high risk of death from the virus to practice social isolation until the epidemic is over.  But it’s not reasonable for everyone else to do it.

Out of misguided fear, though, we are causing real harm.  We have disrupted children’s schooling.  We’re destroying businesses.  Local retailers have struggled for years – now many cities are forcing them to close, shifting even more business to Amazon.  Out of misguided fear, we’re accelerating the forces that are destroying our country.

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Ioannidis ends his analysis with a warning:

In the most pessimistic scenario, which I do not espouse, if the new coronavirus infects 60% of the global population and 1% of the infected people die, that will translate into more than 40 million deaths globally, matching the 1918 influenza pandemic.

The vast majority of this hecatomb would be people with limited life expectancies.  That’s in contrast to 1918, when many young people died.

One can only hope that, much like in 1918, life will continue.  Conversely, with lockdowns of months, if not years, life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake.

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To be perfectly honest, I was spooked, too.  It’s hard to stay calm when so many news organizations are publishing sensational stories.  When I went out to the climbing gym with friends, my spouse asked me to change out of my potentially-infected clothes as soon as I got home.

Then we looked up the data, and realized we’d been hoodwinked.  We had panicked over nothing. 

Except, wait, no – there is reason to panic.  Because this lockdown is scary!  Needless social isolation for the masses is scary! 

And the chance that our proto-fascist president uses this faux-crisis to commandeer even more control?  That is really scary.

On sexuality and freedom of choice.

On sexuality and freedom of choice.

Among worms, there is equality.  When worms entwine, each could become a mother, a father, or both.  Neither worm has grounds to bemoan the fundamental unfairness of our universe – not while fooling around, at least.

Later, the worms might drown, or be eaten by birds, or be mutilated and held captive by a mole.  That all must feel horrible.  But while mating, each worm should feel as though it’s been given a fair deal.

Among emperor penguins, both parents make huge sacrifices for their young.  Each parent will huddle over the egg for months without food, staving off the Antarctic chill.  When it’s time to trade places, the parents must pass the egg using only their webbed feet – if they make even a small mistake, the egg will roll away and freeze, killing the chick inside.

Because each parent puts forth such a huge amount of effort to raise a chick, each must feel quite choosy during the mating season.  When a pair of penguins flirt, neither seems to have the upper hand.

Most animals’ reproduction is more asymmetric.  For them – for us – differing roles can feel unfair.

Often, one partner gets to be pickier than the other. 

Among smooth guardian frogs, fathers are deeply invested in raising their young; mothers hop away after mating, providing no help.  Female smooth guardian frogs seem as though they’d be perfectly happy to make babies with anyone.  They can always have another fling while a past paramour is protecting the last batch of eggs.

For a male, mating is a serious commitment.  He’ll carefully consider his options. And so each female sings to woo him.  A common strategy: knowing that males are choosier when it comes to sex, she’ll sing her heart out, hoping to sway his decision.

Among many other species of frogs, males’ songs serve the same purpose.  Hoping to woo womenfolk, male bowerbirds build.

Female ducks raise their young.  They have the freedom to choose their mates.  Male ducks would have more leverage during courtship if they planned to contribute as parents.  But they don’t.

Male ducks are the natural world’s equivalent of violent incels.  Aggrieved by their lack of choice, they rape.  This has been going on so long that female ducks’ anatomy has evolved – they can trap unwanted sperm with labyrinth passageways inside their bodies, and are able to straighten the path to fertilization during consensual sex – allowing them to maintain mate choice despite the constant threat of assault.

From an evolutionary perspective, animals that put forth an effort as parents have earned their choices.  They generally get to indulge their desires … and, even more importantly, should be safe from those whom they do not desire.

Among many species, we can see evidence of this push and pull between devoted parents and the absentees who loudly sing, “Choose me!  Choose me!”

For instance, we can learn a lot about the sex lives of our closest relatives by comparing the males’ genitalia.  No, not your uncle – that’d be weird.  I mean the great apes.  A traditional comparison of gorillas, chimpanzees, and humans is shown below.

Male gorillas claim a territory, and then the dominant male within each territory feels reasonably certain that every female living there will mate with him and only him.  Although he makes minimal contributions toward parenting – which means the females should feel free to shop around for sexual partners – he sways their decision through physical violence.  Mostly he’ll direct aggression at other males, hoping to stave off their competition, but he’s occasionally rough with “his” females as well.

For male gorillas to control female sexuality without helping as parents, they had to become huge.  As it happens, this evolutionary pressure caused their brains to shrink.  They have almost 90% fewer neurons than we’d expect for a primate of that size.  If gorillas were egalitarian, they would’ve been more intelligent than humans.  But there simply weren’t enough calories for gorillas to have large brains and sufficient brawn to indulge in violent sexual coercion.

Image by Ryan Poplin on Flickr.

There’s less difference in size between male and female chimpanzees, but male chimpanzees also use violence to sway mate choice.  A male chimpanzee might attack and kill a mother’s babies in order to impregnate her … but he won’t if he thinks that they might be his own children. 

The safest plan for a mother, then, is to distribute her sexual favors widely.  Her children will safe from everyone with whom she shared a dalliance.  Maybe she’d like to be choosier, but each male will only last a few seconds, so the cost must not seem like too much to bear.

From an evolutionary perspective, then, male chimpanzees are not competing to be the most beautiful.  Nor to be the greatest artists.   They don’t sing.  They do battle, but they tend to battle in cooperative gangs, with the outcome being that each male among the upper echelon will have the chance to get it on.   A friendless, low-ranking male might be chased off every time he attempts to mate, but many others will have an occasional opportunity.

That’s why male chimpanzees produce so much sperm.  The chance to fertilize a mother’s egg comes down to probability.  If a chimp ejaculates prodigiously, he’s more likely to sire offspring.

Several human cultures believed that babies are formed from sperm, and that mothers required repeated infusions during pregnancy in order for the child to form correctly.  Among the Bari of Venezuela, each man who contributed sperm was treated as a biological father – the child was presumed to inherit virtues from each.

Under these beliefs, polyamory was the best strategy for raising a capable child.  A mother needed to consider which qualities would help her children most in life, then spend time astride the men who possessed each.  The best singer, the most nimble climber, the most astute tracker – each trait was an evening’s lay away.

And her strategy surely worked.  Fooling around with the best singer would probably lead to singing lessons.  If the best hunter also shared an orgasm with this child’s mother, he’d make an effort to explain the sights and sounds and rhythms of the forest.  Honestly, it makes no difference whether talents come from nature or nurture if fathers are willing to teach every child that their sperm might’ve helped create.

The Bari culture, like that of most other human hunter gatherers, was quite egalitarian compared to our own.  But even among hunter gatherers, human fathers were typically shabbier parents than mothers.  For instance, fathers who hunted typically claimed to be the ones feeding their families, even in places where the “women’s work” of gathering fruits, nuts and seeds provided more nutrition than meat.  But an occasional dead deer confers more bragging rights than a sackful of nuts each day, and human males have long loved to brag.

As humans began to practice agriculture, our societies became less equitable.  More and more of the childrearing was done by women.

According to the basic principles of evolution, this means that women should have had more and more leverage during courtship.  More and more control over their sexuality.  In cultures where mothers do basically everything – feeding the family, teaching children, cuddling them through the night – women should have had close to free reign in choosing their partners.

And there’s biological evidence that human women used to be in control.  For instance, many women’s sexual preferences seem to cycle rhythmically.  Relatively effeminate, helpful partners are favored most of the time, but ultra-masculine brutes suddenly seem sexy during temporary bursts of hormones.  In the past, human women probably made out with multiple different men each year.

That’s why human males – unlike gorillas or chimpanzees – have a strong incentive to provide a rollicking good time in bed.  Or in the back of a cave, on the forest floor, alongside the riverbank, wherever.  Although there’s been intense debate about the degree of correlation between male penis size and female sexual pleasure, most people seem willing to admit that there’s a link.

When women buy sex toys … well, usually they buy external vibrators.  These don’t always resemble the genitalia of any biological organism.  Many are designed to look like lipstick tubes or other innocuous objects, for modesty’s sake.

But toys that are designed for penetration?  These tend to be much longer and thicker than either a gorilla’s inch-long erection or a chimpanzee’s three-inch, slender shaft.  Human males tend to be well endowed because it’s a way to sway women’s choices.  By giving her a good time, a man might have the chance to fool around again.

But in addition to huge cocks (relative to other primates – as Jeffrey Yang wrote in his poetry collection An Aquarium: The barnacle has the longest penis / of any animal in proportion / to its body size.  Happiness / and proportion: / never be ashamed of evolution), humans also have huge brains.  Instead of evolving better and better ways to deliver consensual pleasure, human males invented stories to subvert female mate choice.

Human males aren’t as horrible as ducks, but we’re close.

Around the world, human males have used religion as a tool to constrain female choice.  We teach that the natural inclination toward polyamory is evil.  A woman needs to devote herself to one man.  In many cultures, women are not even allowed to choose who that man will be.

Even in contemporary experiments on U.S. college students, the presence of sexual competitors leads people to espouse more strident religious experiments.  If you can’t win with your looks, or with your charming personality, why not tell her that it’d be immoral to make eyes at that other guy?

Human men could have made art like bowerbirds.  We could’ve sung like frogs.  Hell, we could’ve capitalized on the promise of our large genitalia to deliver such sweating shaking shuddering good fun that our sexual partners would remain dazzled forever.

Instead, we invented deities, spirits, and purity laws.  We taught that women who dallied should be stigmatized, or stoned, or murdered by God with a rain of burning sulfur.

If emperor penguins learned about our sex lives, they’d be appalled.  “Dude,” a penguin father might say, “you don’t need to coerce her with a sky ghost!  Just be a good parent.  Then you’ll get to choose, too.”

That’s sound advice, Mr. Penguin.  I am trying to be a good parent.  Even when the kids are fussing, I try.

Featured image by Property#1 on Flickr.

On telepathy and the battle for narrative control.

On telepathy and the battle for narrative control.

After William Burroughs experienced how pitifully he could be held in thrall by a small molecule, he developed a lifelong interest in telepathy and mind control. 

His own brain had been upended.  Suddenly, he found himself devoting the vast majority of his time and money toward a single cause: obtaining a day’s ration of opiate.  If he was delinquent in this task, he grew sick.  Agony would keep him focused.

If that drug was capable of re-sculpting a human personality, might there be other ways?  In Queer, the protagonist speculates:

“I know telepathy to be a fact, since I have experienced it myself.  I have no interest to prove it, or, in fact, to prove anything to anybody.  What interests me is, how can I use it?

“In South America at the headwaters of the Amazon grows a plant called Yage that is supposed to increase telepathic sensitivity.  Medicine men use it in their work.  A Colombian scientist, whose name escapes me, isolated from Yage a drug he called Telepathine.  I read all this in a magazine article.

“Later I see another article: the Russians are using Yage in experiments on slave labor.  It seems they want to induce states of automatic obedience and ultimately, of course, ‘thought control.’  The basic con.  No buildup, no spiel, no routine, just move in on someone’s psyche and give orders.

“I have a theory that the Mayan priests developed a form of one-way telepathy to con the peasants into doing all the work.  The deal is certain to backfire eventually, because telepathy is not of its nature a one-way setup, nor a setup of sender and receiver at all.”

As it happens, psychedelic drugs are quite poor tools for potentiating mind control.  But there are other ways.  A precisely-localized magnetic pulse can cause prompt, unnoticeable alterations in a person’s behavior – researchers were able to change how their human study subjects responded to unfairness, all without those subjects realizing that they were acting differently from usual.

Because repeated behaviors give rise to our personality, it stands to reason that repeated transcranial magnetic stimulation could rewire a person’s identity.  Invisibly, and, with the right interference patterns, at a distance. 

You could be made other.

The more common form of mind control practiced in the United States is much less technologically advanced.  Rather than using a magnetic pulse to stimulate or suppress particular regions of the brain, we employ narrative control.

Here’s a simple story: a bell rings, then dinner is served.  If this story is integrated inside the brain as universally true, then the sound of the bell will trigger salivation.  This is the basic principle behind Pavlovian conditioning.  You can train a dog to associate dinnertime to the sound of a bell, or to have an aversion to a particular smell.

Humans can be similarly conditioned.  Companies like Facebook and Apple have incorporated a variety of sensory experiences into their designs, all intended to engender a sense of urgency about checking your telephone.  The alerts, the updates, the little pings – these are pushed to the forefront of the design because they compel engagement.  Likewise the little jingles of dropped loot in online fantasy games.

In a perfect world, corporations would not make their users’ brains worse in order to increase their own profits.  If those companies’ designs were less malicious, the makers wouldn’t need to be so vigilant about making sure that their own children don’t engage with their creations.

But those are little stories.  A few stray details added to the narrative of your day: if you see the dot, click to see the update!  More threatening is the prospect of mind control that totally rewrites an internalized narrative.  Take a person’s memories and supplant them.

In Burroughs’s Naked Lunch, the doctor Benway describes his interrogation techniques:

“While in general I avoid the use of torture – torture locates the opponent and mobilizes resistance – the threat of torture is useful to induce in the subject the appropriate feeling of helplessness and gratitude to the interrogator for withholding it.  And torture can be employed to advantage as a penalty when the subject is far enough along with the treatment to accept punishment as deserved.”

In an excellent article for Science magazine, journalist Douglas Starr describes research into false confessions, situations when people are subjected to such extreme narrative control that they temporarily lose grasp of their personal memories and accept instead an interrogator’s version of reality. 

A variety of techniques are employed – the threat of torture, as above; a questioning regime that is in itself torturous, giving the subject an incentive to play along just to make it stop; sleep deprivation to muddle the brain; ardently repeated falsehoods to supplant the subject’s own stories; deceitful cajoling to persuade the subject that there would be minimal consequences to accepting an alternate version of reality (by saying things like “Anyone would have done the same thing”).

And it works.  Innocent people can be made to believe that they’ve done horrible things.  With a variety of laboratory experiments, psychologist Saul Kassin has shown that these techniques can induce almost anyone to confess to things they haven’t done.

Your stories can be wrested from you.

Indeed, our entire legal system is a battleground for narrative control.  Two sides compete to determine what story will enter the legal record: this is typically set up as a test of wits between a well-trained, well-funded prosecutor and an indigent, incarcerated individual who might or might not receive a brief consultation with an overscheduled public defender.

Predictably, the prosecutor often wins.  Because prosecutors have absolute, unchecked power to determine what charges to levy against a defendant, they can threaten people with the risk of outlandish punishment … and they can force a defendant to suffer in jail simply by delaying trials.  So, eventually, when a prosecutor offers an alternative story that would allow the defendant’s torture to end, most people will renounce their own memories.  They plead guilty.  After all, you might spend another year in jail waiting for a trial, or you could just let the prosecutor re-write history and walk out today.

Of course, you might not walk out today.  Even if you were told that you would.  In this battle for narrative control, one side – the defendant – is required to be honest.  The other is not.

And so people lose their stories, the very narratives that make us who we are.

Featured image: neural pathways in the brain taken using diffusion tensor. Image by Thomas Schultz.